Kyoto, our new production about a groundbreaking moment in the global understanding of climate change, transfers to @sohoplace in January 2025. But what is the Kyoto Protocol and why is it important?
On 11 December, we mark 27 years of the Kyoto Protocol, a momentous global agreement on climate change, which came to a dramatic conclusion at the end of COP 3 in 1997.
Joe Murphy and Joe Robertson's Kyoto, our co-production with Good Chance, Rachel Styne and Jessica Foung, which premiered in Stratford in June 2024, tells the story as a tense, political thriller, placing the audience in the seats of the Kyoto Conference of the Parties (COP), and asks them to seriously consider the meaning - and consequences - of global co-operation.
As the show begins its journey to the West End (opening 9 January @sohoplace), we dive into the history of the Kyoto Protocol, its importance and its ultimate legacy.
Dale Rapley as Bert Bolin, a Swedish meteorologist who served as the first Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), from 1988 to 1997 (Kyoto, The Swan Theatre, 2024)
What is the Kyoto Protocol?
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was the result of 10 days of intense negotiations between global powers in Kyoto, Japan. It outlined the first ever legally binding targets for global nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in a bid to slow down the disastrous effects of climate change.
On 11 December 1997, at the end of the third session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 3), senior representatives of 192 countries agreed to legally binding reductions on carbon emissions for developed nations. This was based on scientific consensus that global warming was occurring, that human-made greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂) were responsible and that developed countries should take more responsibility than developing countries.
As Kyoto dramatises, the preceding years were dogged with misinformation and heavy swings from fossil fuel companies to try and derail the agreement. However, due to the hard work of key players – including the Chairman of the Conference, Ambassador to Argentina Raúl Estrada-Oyuela and the UK's then Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott - there was a global consensus and the first legally binding targets on reducing emissions were agreed.
We are grateful that John contributed these thoughts, despite illness, in the summer before his sad death on 20 November 2024.
Jorge Bosch as Ambassador Raúl Estrada-Oyuela, Chairman of the Whole, who dropped the gavel on negotiations at 10.17am on 11 December 1997 (Kyoto, The Swan Theatre, 2024)
What were the terms of the Kyoto Protocol?
While the Kyoto Protocol was agreed and adopted on 11 December 1997, it only entered into force on 16 February 2005. The first commitment period ran from 2008 to 2012, and a second commitment period ran from 2012 to 2020.
During the first commitment period, 38 developed countries, including Australia, the EU and its (then) 28 member states and Russia, were given legally binding targets to reduce their emissions by an average of 5% below 1990 greenhouse gas emissions levels.
Despite agreeing to the protocol, the USA never ratified the agreement and dropped out in 2001, citing that it would cause damage to its economy. Canada pulled out of the agreement in 2011 rather than face economy-crippling fines for failing to reach its target.
In the second commitment period, 37 countries agreed to further binding targets, but Japan, New Zealand and Russia did not take on new targets. Canada and the United States did not participate.
Kyoto Protocol Timeline
1992 – The first UN Conference on the Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro results in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
1995 – Parties meet for COP 1 in Berlin, Germany, to outline specific targets on emissions.
1997 – Parties meet for COP 3 in Kyoto, Japan, and agree on the broad outlines of legally binding emissions targets for developed countries.
2001 – The US does not ratify the agreement, and drops out.
2004 – Russia and Canada ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
2005 – The treaty is brought into effect on 16 February 2005.
2008 – The first commitment period begins - 38 countries commit to reducing their emissions by an average of 5% of their 1990 levels.
2011 – Canada, facing billions of dollars in fines for not reaching its target, leaves the agreement.
2012 – The first commitment period ends, and a second is proposed. The Doha Amendment gives countries until 2020 to achieve secondary targets.
2015 – The Paris Agreement essentially replaces the Kyoto Protocol, with 196 countries agreeing to "pursue efforts" to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels (preferably to 1.5°C), to reach net zero between 2050 and 2100, and for richer countries to provide climate finance to help poorer countries achieve these goals and adapt to climate change.
Audience members sit among the cast of Kyoto, directed by Stephen Daldry and Justin Martin (2024).
What was the effect of the Kyoto Protocol?
On paper, the agreement did succeed in its overall goal – to reduce emissions by at least 5.2% (actual numbers are agreed to have been between 7 and 12.5%). However, it is difficult to measure the exact impact of the Kyoto Protocol, mostly because of how many changes to the global stage there have been in the years since 1997.
By 2012, net global emissions had increased by 44%. China soon surpassed the US as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, and India caught up with the EU – neither of these countries were given binding targets in the original agreement, as neither were considered to be 'developed' at the time.
Today, global emissions are still increasing. In 1950, the world emitted 6 billion tonnes of CO₂, but by 1990, this had increased to over 20 billion tonnes and today we emit over 35 billion tonnes each year (Source). According to the 2024 Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environmental Programme, global greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase in 2023, and, unless changes are made, the world is not on track to keep global warming under 1.5°C.
While the agreement itself did not reduce net global emissions, the impact of this first international consensus cannot be denied. It laid the groundwork for the 2015 Paris Agreement and international co-operation, and ushered in more common understanding of the urgency and impact of climate change, which has led to a larger global move towards renewable energy.
KYOTO ON STAGE
Hailed by critics as 'rich and vital' (The i) and 'tense and gripping' (Guardian), Kyoto demonstrates the power of negotiation and the possibility of global consensus in the face of a seemingly hopeless cause. Take your seat at the heart of the action, and witness this momentous event unfold in a piece of 'sheer theatrical magic' (WhatsOnStage).
Kyoto runs on the West End @sohoplace from 9 January to 3 May 2025.
An RSC, Good Chance, Rachel Styne & Jessica Foung production. By arrangement with Nica Burns.
